How we value UAE used cars

Inputs

A valuation takes five inputs:

• Make: Brand-level grouping. Variants like "Mercedes Benz" and "Mercedes-Benz" canonicalize to one row.
• Model: Family, not trim. A Camry SE and Camry LE share a model-level median; trim premiums are absorbed into the band width.
• Year: Model year, not registration year.
• Mileage: Bucketed in 30,000 km bands. Linear interpolation inside a band.
• Condition: Self-reported: excellent, good, fair, poor.

Constants

Asking → sold

0.93×

Median UAE private close vs list

Condition multipliers

1.08 / 1.00 / 0.90 / 0.75

Excellent / good / fair / poor

Depreciation

10%/yr

Geometric, used for inter-year extrapolation

Mileage bucket

30,000 km

Linear interpolation inside a bucket

Confidence band

±6% to ±18%

Narrow on dense data; wider on fallbacks

Sample sources

DubiCars + YallaMotor

UAE-wide live listings

These live in lib/engine/adapters/car.ts. When we re-tune them (we've done it twice since launch) this page and the engine ship together — there is no version where the prose drifts from the code.

The five-step computation

1. Pull every active UAE listing for (make, model, year, mileage bucket) from our sample table. Sources: DubiCars and YallaMotor.
2. Take the median of asking prices. Median, not mean — one optimistic seller does not move the answer.
3. Multiply by the asking-to-sold ratio of 0.93. UAE private sales close roughly 7% below list after negotiation.
4. Apply the condition multiplier: 1.08 excellent, 1.00 good, 0.90 fair, 0.75poor. Symmetric around "good".
5. Linearly interpolate within the mileage bucket for the exact km entered, then wrap a confidence band: ±6% when the sample is dense, widening to ±18% on sparse fallbacks.

Data freshness

Sample density per segment is shown on every /car page (look for the "based on N comparable listings" line). The busiest segments refresh daily. The long tail is demand-driven: when a user values a thin-coverage model, that (make, model) gets queued for a fresh pull.

Known limits

• Newest model years: For 2026 model-years still in launch volumes, listing depth is thin. We widen the band to ±12% and label the result "indicative".
• High-spec / enthusiast trims: AMG Black Series, GT3, Trackhawk, etc. trade on collector dynamics the median can't capture. The published band is a floor, not the truth.
• Accident history: Listings rarely disclose category claims. A documented accident historically takes 15-25% off the low for a realistic private-sale offer.
• Emirates spread: Dubai listings skew about 3-5% higher than Sharjah / Northern Emirates for the same car. CarWorth publishes a UAE-wide median, which is appropriate for private sale.

What we do not do

• No buy / sell incentive: We are not a marketplace, not a dealer, not a broker. We earn nothing on the transaction. That's exactly what lets us publish the honest range.
• No paid placements: No make, model, or dealer ever pays for visibility on our /insights or /car pages.
• No single-number quotes: A used-car price is a band, not a number. Anyone quoting one number is either guessing or selling.

Audit and corrections

If a published range disagrees with what you're seeing on the market, email hello@carworth.ae with the make, model, year, and three live listing URLs. We investigate, retune the relevant segment, and ship a corrected range — typically within 48 hours.